Monday, April 14, 2008

The Invisible Hand's Inclination for Baseball by Matias Bulnes, NYC

Baseball season is starting and this introduces changes in the day-to-day pace of life of many of us. When thinking about it, it strikes me as remarkable how important a role Baseball plays in the lives of many. Millions follow their team’s performance on TV, the newspaper, or in casual conversation. Moreover, Baseball oftentimes serves as an opener for social interaction or as a standard of personal identification. According to the magnitude of this role, people are willing to spend an important portion of their income and time on Baseball, and hence it has become a highly compensated human activity. Baseball players make millions and there can hardly be any doubt that they are located on the high part of the wealth pyramid. And as with Baseball, so it happens with Basketball, Football, Tennis, Soccer, Car Races, Boxing, etc. In contemporary societies there are enormous incentives for hitting balls, driving cars or kicking each other to the highest possible degree of perfection.

By contrast, let’s consider the case of natural scientists. Undoubtedly the natural sciences have been the hotbed for much of the technological development of the last few hundred years. This technological development, in turn, is to an important degree responsible for the kind of life our societies enjoy. Telephones for being in touch with our loved ones, electric light for extending our hours of activity, refrigerators for conserving our food, TV’s for watching Baseball and other forms of entertainment, medicine for ensuring the birth of our children, to mention only a few, have given us the choice of living more comfortably. Barring reactionary arguments, it is hard not to see the natural sciences as an indispensable factor in raising the quality of life of mankind over the last centuries (to various degrees depending on the time and location). Nevertheless, society compensates such a crucial occupation as that of the natural scientist with meager salaries compared to other occupations. In particular, top sportsmen make more than ten or twenty times what top natural scientists make. There is no need to have a sharp eye to notice a discrepancy between the importance of these two occupations for the development of our societies and the compensations attached to them. Could it be the case that the invisible hand has a capricious inclination for Baseball players over natural scientists? Could it be the case that Free-market Economy is after all irrational in distributing the incentives in society?


Let’s begin by being fair to the invisible hand. Perhaps, despite initial appearance Baseball is an indispensable human activity, or at least important enough so as to be better compensated than natural sciences. Where could this importance be? One could say that Baseball is an efficient form of entertainment and that people need entertainment during their leisure time in order to be more productive during working time. However, this does not explain why we need to spend such an obscene amount of money in entertainment. Presumably, we would get an equally entertaining Baseball season by paying the players one tenth of what they get paid now. In fact, we see very competent doctors, lawyers, journalists and scientists working for much less than Baseball players. Wouldn’t a $200,000 salary make for quite an incentive to play Baseball? If it works for anybody else, why wouldn’t it work for Baseball players?

A more plausible argument would be admitting that Baseball is not intrinsically important but insisting that it nonetheless produces very important psychological effects. For instance, one could try to make the case that watching Baseball we are first-hand witnesses of success and failure, glory and demise, all of which reinforce competitive attitudes in the audience crucial for the bloom of society. Moreover, the argument would go on, these obscene salaries exacerbate the contrast between success and failure intensifying thereby these attitudes. Now setting aside the extravagancy of this argument, it relies on an empirical claim that seems by all lights doubtful. Surely everybody knows many people who are competitive and, more importantly, competent in their activities and have no interest in sports whatsoever. It is even unclear that statistically speaking sports fans are thirstier of success than others. Simple observation defies this argument.

Another argument I have heard in conversation is that Baseball is important because people are willing to spend a significant portion of their income on it. Baseball fans spend hundreds and even thousands of dollars a year on Baseball tickets or cable TV and this shows that it is important—for them. After all, the argument goes, what other measure of importance can there be if not the preferences of the economic agents? In response, let’s point out that not only are there many other measures of importance but there must be if the hypothesis of the invisible hand is to have any traction. For defining importance as whatever accords to the preferences of the economic agents is just begging the question whether the invisible hand can rationally regulate the incentives in society. The metaphor of the invisible hand as used by libertarians refers precisely to the preferences of the economic agents. As a consequence, the argument amounts to the claim that Baseball is important just because the invisible hand allocates certain resources to it, begging thus the question whether the invisible hand does a good job allocating resources.

But perhaps the best response one can give to these arguments is that there are fairly credible explanations for why our societies fail to compensate certain activities in accordance with their importance. Consider natural sciences and its perceived benefits for society. Usually scientific advancements take a long time to turn into technology. Furthermore, once technology has been derived from science it usually takes decades or centuries to reach the masses. For example, even though scientists had been working on a theory of electricity since at least the XVII century, electric light was not massified until the XX century. Meanwhile the very idea of using electricity to massively distribute light was no more than uncertain speculation. Be as it may, because of this separation in time between the scientific work and its tangible benefits for regular people, scientists, unlike Baseball players, have no negotiation power in the societies they live in. Hanged up on a wall of my workplace, there is a caricature of philosophers going on a strike. Their slogan is “no more search for the truth unless our demands are met.” The joke also represents how much regular people would care if scientists went on a strike. And in a free-market economy, economic incentives are fastened to how much people care. This is why Baseball players make so much money and natural scientists so little.

Now, in all fairness, it should be said that this explanation works only under the assumption that people don’t care about science. But this seems to be fairly obvious from plain observation. Although institutionally science plays a significant role in our societies, when it comes to people’s preferences there can hardly be any doubt that they care much more about Baseball than about natural sciences. And in a free-market economy people’s preferences, not institutional significance, determines economic incentives. Not only is the folk generally ignorant of science and its connection with technology, also it is widely accepted even within Economics that the folk is most strongly driven by short-term considerations. As a result, even if people were completely aware that a strike of natural scientists may jeopardize their chances of improving their quality of life in the far future it is unclear that this would produce the slightest distress in them.

In sum, aside from the comparison between Baseball and natural sciences, the short-term orientation of economic agents gives us independent reasons to expect that their preferences may not distribute the incentives in society rationally. The contrast between Baseball and natural science only goes to confirm what should have been expected. Moreover, this is just one instance of a distortion that should be much more widespread among other human activities. Intervention in the market is therefore necessary to correct for this distortion. I propose to intervene by allowing Baseball players to receive whatever salaries the market pays them but severely increase their tax burden so we can use that money to compensate natural scientists or other crucial human activities in accordance with their importance.

4 Comments:

MT Nguyen said...

I’m not sure I understand what the ultimate conclusion is supposed to be, but there are various reasons to doubt several of the things you assert on the way to the conclusion. First, I doubt it is true that our society compensates sports figures more than it does scientists. Of course, it may seem so if you compare individual salaries. But why is that the relevant comparison? The more relevant comparison, I would think, would be in terms of the values of the respective industries. If you use that basis, the value of baseball teams is but a small fraction of the value of, say, the drug industry. For 2007, Forbes gave the value of all MLB teams together at nearly $13 Billion. By contrast, again using Forbes as the source, the 2008 value of the top drug and biotech industries topped $1,750 Billion. That’s only for one type of science-related industry. If, following your example of electricity, you include the utilities industry, you get another $2,100 Billion. And so on. So, you see, it’s not even close.

Secondly, I get the idea that you are railing against our society’s low evaluation of theoretical scientific endeavor. The above numbers have to do with scientific technological output and not, as you phrase it, ‘natural science’ as such. But why should we care, as a society, about the natural sciences as an intellectual enterprise independent of its technological output? Yes, there are arguments asserting the absolute value of knowledge, but those are typically cast as arguments for individuals to achieve happiness. You also say, as if it were damning, that people care more about sports than about the natural sciences. In one sense, it is obviously true. I doubt that is true however in the relevant sense, for surely people care more about having electricity in their houses (and functioning transportation and computer systems) than about seeing Alex Rodriguez play. True, Rodriguez’s striking out in a crucial at bat may break people’s hearts, while a failed scientific experiment might not (even assuming people knew about it), but the invisible hand doesn’t track the ups and downs of the human heart. As long as the preference for electricity, etc. over Rodriguez is realized, we will have a rational (as least as far as these things are concerned) economic system, irrespective of how much he makes. Will you respond that caring about electricity, computers and transportation doesn’t amount to caring about science? If so, I’m puzzled. Perhaps you mean that scientists should get more respect and praise (and love?) in ordinary life. But if so, what’s that got to do with the economy?

I take it that your proposal at the end is intended to be provocative. The numbers cited above suggest that scientists are, as a group, compensated handsomely. If the values above get eaten up by corporate profiteers and are not rightly distributed to the scientific innovators, then that is something they need to take up with their unions. At any rate, the tax monies from sports salaries would be but a drop in the bucket.

Finally, if you’re talking about the economic irrationality of how little philosophers (“other crucial human activities”) make relative to their value, then that’s another matter!

Matias Bulnes said...

In fact, the relevant comparison for the point I want to make is in terms of individual salaries and not the value of the industry. The reason is that I'm trying to meet the libertarian on her own terms. Hence, I accept that individuals are importantly motivated by expected returned or benefit. As a consequence, when it comes to promoting activities or generating incentives that these individuals can respond to, what matters is the expected benefit or, in short, the salary. When torn between two companies, an economic agent of this kind will go for the one that pays better pretty much regardless of the size of the company or industry.

But even if you want to think in terms of the value of the industry, I still think it a waste that as a society we spend so much money on Baseball, no matter whether there are bigger industries or not. I think that's the ultimate idea I was trying to get through. Barring some revolutionary argument to the contrary, Baseball seems to be a platitudinous. And other things being equal, it's never a good idea to spend so much money on platitudes; especially in a world with so many urgencies.

Now even though natural science was a resource and hence almost incidental in the argument, I would like to clarify that I do not claim that science has intrinsic value independently of its utility. In fact, I think exactly the opposite. Nevertheless, you should consider that 1) there's no technological development without science and 2) most of the time, we don't know at present what utility science will have. As a consequence, science is always bet. But one that turns out to be crucial for our development.

MT Nguyen said...

Within the context of incentives, I think we have to keep in mind that professional athletes are physical freaks of nature and professional scientists are intellectual freaks of nature. There is no amount of incentivizing that will move someone from one group to another. Nor will economic incentives move someone who is considering science as an occupation to becoming a professional athlete instead--you have to built that way, and no scientist I know could have been a major league baseball star. Plato was partially right to insist on natural talents as being a basis for optimal social functioning.

Now, there are those who could have become successful scientists but chose not to because of the relatively low salaries. In that case, the comparison should be between science salaries and genuine alternatives, e.g. business or medicine. This has nothing to do with sports. Plus, are scientists really making so little that it has a significant disincentive effect?

Regarding the value of sports, surely a case could be made that the economic value we place on it is not that high. In the big scheme of things, $12 Billion for having the privilege of watching baseball is not a very high price (compare the $81 Billion the Pentagon is paying for a submarine, to quote Robert Scheer, to fight al-Qaida's imaginary navy). Leaving aside other instances of waste, isn't play and leisure time fundamental human values, ones that make life worth living? To be sure, such values don't need to be expressed in terms of professional sports, but given that they are in fact expressed that way for many, on what grounds would we diminish or take them away? So we can have a few more people ruminating about the structure of the universe? I dare say that very few would be or should be convinced by that argument.

PC said...

Baseball is a product which is sold to consumers who have a choice how spend their disposable income. However, access to the product is controlled by ownership in the form of wealthy owners off teams, stadiums, and broadcast rights. For years, before the advent of free agency, owners owned the players, labor, too. Players should be viewed as labor who produce a desirable product for consumers. What is instructive about the rewards players earn are that they not so much being payed to play the game, but to increase the value of the product owners sell to consumers. The players have progressively earned a larger share of the profits owners earn from selling their product to consumers; this is profit sharing between ownership and labor. The rising salaries of players is directly correlated to the formation of the Major League Baseball Players Association, a union; in 1965 the average salary for a player was $14340, in 1967 it was $19000. The contemporary real value of those salaries is $81565 and $102,454 respectively; today the average salary is over $2.8 million.

I don't think it is instructive to examine player salaries as a measure of how we value different fields of human endeavor; that seems to be measured how we spend our dollars - whether those choices are wise or foolish is another question. However, what is instructive about baseball players' salaries is how important a strong union was to those salary gains. If Americans are to be compensated appropriately for their labor, they need strong unions to advocate for their interests. In a country which is shifting/has shifted its wage earning bases to service jobs which are traditionally non-unionized, this shift represents a chance for ownership to return to the days of exploiting labor. The need for unions though is not limited to Americans - if American unions are to be effective, labor in other competing countries need to be organized, too. Of course, products produced by a unionized workforce will be more expensive; Americans may selfishly demand cheap manufactured goods and seek trading partners without unionized labor. It would not be surprising if Americans decide to cut off their noses to spite their faces in this way.

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