Friday, February 27, 2009

Yikes

From the Financial Times:

In recent weeks, bankers at places such as JPMorgan Chase and Wachovia have been quietly sifting data trying to ascertain what has happened to those swathes of troubled CDO of ABS [collateralised debt obligations of asset-backed securities].

The conclusions are stunning. From late 2005 to the middle of 2007, around $450bn of CDO of ABS were issued, of which about one third were created from risky mortgage-backed bonds (known as mezzanine CDO of ABS) and much of the rest from safer tranches (high grade CDO of ABS.)

Out of that pile, around $305bn of the CDOs are now in a formal state of default, with the CDOs underwritten by Merrill Lynch accounting for the biggest pile of defaulted assets, followed by UBS and Citi.

The real shocker, though, is what has happened after those defaults. JPMorgan estimates that $102bn of CDOs has already been liquidated. The average recovery rate for super-senior tranches of debt – or the stuff that was supposed to be so ultra safe that it always carried a triple A tag – has been 32 per cent for the high grade CDOs. With mezzanine CDO’s, though, recovery rates on those AAA assets have been a mere 5 per cent.


The truth really, really hurts.

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Tuesday, February 24, 2009

A Very Partisan Stimulus Bill by Matias Bulnes, NYC

The exhausting negotiation over the Stimulus Plan in Congress made one thing clear: Obama didn’t get his honey moon with Congress. In his first big initiative, less than a month after he arrived in the White House, Republicans decided to play tug of war with the Democratic majority in Congress. The Bill still passed but the resistance it found is striking in the light of Obama’s call for bipartisanship in Washington. Did Republicans not buy his call? Or did Obama abuse his credit line with such a “liberal” plan? Or, perhaps, there has never been such a thing as bipartisanship and Obama’s call for it (as McCain’s boast of his bipartisan record) was yet another political move to get an edge in the game.

Before attempting to decide among these possibilities let’s get clear as to what bipartisanship is. We say that a legislative motion is bipartisan simply when it is meant to appeal to both Democrats and Republicans. But if we are to factor in the usual implications of the word in political rhetoric, it also involves the assumption that bipartisan are those who put the interest of the country first, over and above the interest of their parties. To a large measure, the word has become etiquette to set apart the open-minded, transparent politicians from the narrow, egoistic ones.

Notice that being bipartisan is a matter of having the right intentions, not of actually voting with or against ones’ party (though the voting record is probably telling). Someone can frequently walk across the aisle to bridge gaps between opposing parties but do so in order to pursue a longer-term partisan goal--or even one of his own (e.g. becoming president). In the light of this the question whether politicians are ever bipartisan, that is, if bipartisanship is at all possible, is pertinent.

A political realist would give a negative answer to this question. According to political realism, politics is just a struggle for power and, as such, there is no room in it for higher ideals such as the country, world, the people, etc. (though the interest of the country is expected to follow from such egoistic wrestles). But many find political realism unnecessarily bleak or, in any case, implausible. Should they believe in the “bipartisan” talk?

During his campaign, Obama stressed the need to change the culture of attributing impure intentions to political opponents. Consistent with Obama’s optimism, one could explain the Republican resistance to his Bill as due not to their partisanship but to a genuine disagreement over what the interest of the country is. After all, no doubt Republicans and Democrats roughly represent distinct political ideologies which differ over what the good is. While Democrats tend to see the interest of the country as involving social justice, Republicans tend to omit this item in their conception of the nation’s good.

But even so, it is hard to fully explain the hysteria Obama’s plan sparked among Republicans as a legitimate bipartisan disagreement. Republicans were at fault for at least misinterpreting the context in which the debate was taking place. Bipartisanship is putting the country’s interest even above one’s ideology: it requires the ability to recognize that the country is in a state of emergency, curb one’s ideological impulses, unite with the opponents and get the country afloat. Republicans clearly failed on this score. This perhaps explains the feeling of disgust toward them many of us have been experiencing.

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Sunday, February 22, 2009

Hyper-reality

I'm currently reading a law article (via Balkinization) on the conceptual/legal history of money, and came across this staggering assertion:  the top 25 hedge fund managers earned an average of $825 million in 2007. 


The author calls this the hyper-reality of money--and it has consequences, notably hyper-inflation. 

My mouth is still agape, as I cannot make heads or tails of this.      

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Friday, February 20, 2009

Philosopher schools Op-ed columnist

Hilzoy (of Obsidian Wings) chides George Will for failing to carefully read or failing to read or failing to understand or deliberately misrepresenting scientific work he cites in his recent column on climate change.

She writes, "Where I come from, when someone writes something of the form:  'P is not evidence for Q, and here's why', it is dishonest to quote that person saying P and use that quote as evidence for Q.  If one of my students did this, I would grade her down considerably, and would drag her into my office for an unpleasant talk about basic scholarly standards. If she misused quotes in this way repeatedly, I might flunk her."

I guess Will flunks. Too bad that doesn't mean he loses his influential perch, for as Brad DeLong makes clear, the Washington Post's Ombudsman would fail as well.  


Sigh.  

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Thursday, February 19, 2009

Schadenfreude


(Cartoon via www.nicholsoncartoons.com.au)


Evidently, the Swiss banking giant UBS has acknowledged their role in a conspiracy to defraud the US by knowingly sheltering tax dollars.  As part of their agreement with the US DOJ, UBS will, for the first time ever, hand over names of relevant clients.  The number of clients involved is listed by the Financial Times at 250.  I find it hard to believe that the number is not higher, e.g. The New York Times writes that the number of accounts being investigated is 19,000.

At any rate, I know I always feel better when rich tax-evaders can glimpse their comeuppance just around the corner.

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Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Israel's Election

While the stimulus plan has concentrated the US media's attention, little has been said about Israel’s election last Wednesday. The exact result of the election is still open as the two almost tied majorities have to negotiate their way to the prime ministry. But one thing emerged as clear: the Right struck a huge victory. This state of affairs tends to corroborate two theses discussed in a previous article. First, once the alarm of war has passed public attention shifts from the Israel-Palestine conflict rather quickly: unfortunately, public attention responds to bloodshed. Second, the extremists, currently prominent on both sides of the conflict, are not temporary distortions but have massive support. The latter thesis is perhaps the saddest one. For one thing, the Right’s decisive victory will no doubt make George Mitchell’s work in the region more difficult. But more importantly, this tends to corroborate (though fortunately does not confirm) that the conflict may well have no solution.

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Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Zero Sum game

Josh Marshall of TPM interviews economist Joseph Stiglitz about the current bailout plan. His take should, at once, frighten and madden.

Some highlights:

a. “To a large extent, this is a Zero sum game.” If someone wins, someone must lose. So, either banks win or taxpayers win.

b. In this high stakes environment, a bank’s losing, e.g. Citibank, would mean it is wiped out. Many banks’ balance sheets are so far in the red that current assets cannot possibly sustain the loss.

c. In response to whether bank failure(s) would lead to the often used word, ‘catastophe’, Stiglitz seemed quite sanguine over the matter. It isn’t a big deal. We need to keep in mind, he says, that a bank’s failure does not imply a destruction of any assets, but merely their reorganization. Moreover, there are benefits to allowing bank failure: we change the incentive structure so that long term, as opposed to short term, risk taking is incentivized. Failing CEO’s are fired, new one’s brought in, perhaps motivating private capital injections.

d. Lastly, we taxpayers now essentially own the major banks, given previous large capital injections. The problem is we don’t have, have not given ourselves, ownership control—and that is a disaster or will lead to one. Not for the banks, of course, but for tax payers.

Populist intuitions and general contempt for Wall St., at least in this scenario, seem to be verified. We intuitively understand that we are propping banks up at our own collective expense. And that ‘the shock doctrine’ is being deployed to great effect. Surely, those who have private interest in banks are doing whatever they can to ensure that they win this zero sum game.

It is a sorry state of affairs that Geithner’s and Obama’s plan seem to be facilitating that move. A move which was once referred to as ‘Cash for trash’ should now be called, as Stiglitz memorably puts it, ‘Cash for bundles of trash’. Since there’s no way of pricing this large and complex bundle, how much should we pay? Surely, it will end up being way, way too much.

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Monday, February 9, 2009

Plato's return by MT Nguyen, The Empire CA

Many who debate the merits of various stimulus proposals argue on the basis that their proposal rests on sound, that is true, economic principles. This is the basis for claiming that one proposal, as against any other, would work. Thus, conservatives cry out that the Obama proposal cannot work because it doesn’t contain enough tax cuts and includes too many irrelevant spending measures, while Democrats insist that Government spending on public works projects is key. Both policy proposals, tax cuts/decreased spending and ‘shock and awe’ Government spending, are firmly entrenched in each side’s economic principles, very crudely and respectively, free market principles which decry intervention and Keynesian principles which make room for it.

I will say nothing here on the merits of either claim (although this doesn’t mean that I believe that the proposals are on a par). Rather I want to note and focus on one thing that both sides share, namely, the assumption that what is economically true is also what is good for Americans. This may appear harmless and perhaps even a necessary truth. After all, shouldn’t economic policy be based on what’s true? Yes, it would be crazy to base social policy on what’s known or believed to be false. However, this is besides the point, because the assumption I want to note asserts much more than that truism. It is a striking assumption because it implies that the correct, i.e., true economic principles, are also, in the end, the just ones. For the efficacy of a proposal or the dimension along which a policy is judged to have ‘worked’ is always whether good has been achieved, at the limit, the good of economic justice. The assumption is comprised of two implications: if an economic principle is true, it must be good for the country; and, if an economic policy is good for the country, it must rest on true economic principles.

Here, the True and the Good (as I will say in shorthand) coincide in truly spectacular fashion. It should seem incredible to anyone who’s not Plato that this alignment should always take place.

Let’s be more concrete. When someone claims that any economic recovery would require that wealth be redistributed away from the wealthy and towards the working class, isn’t it curious that that person almost certainly believes, quite independently of economic principles, in some form of economic egalitarianism? Or, on the other side, when someone argues that government intervention into market forces makes for inefficient distributions, isn’t it curious that that person almost certainly believes that government intervention illegitimately transgresses a person’s right to property. An observant skeptic would suggest that these moral principles, egalitarianism and the sanctity of property rights, motivate and support the belief in certain economic principles. If so, it is no wonder then that the outcomes of the various policy proposals should yield (what’s believed to be) economic justice: moral outcomes are predetermined by moral inputs.

Now, it would certainly be objectionable to support an economic principle, a principle which purports to be scientific and objective, by reference to a moral belief. As a basis for supporting Say’s Law, “The all benevolent God told it’s true” is a howler. If economics purports to be anything like physics (or more likely, biology), human preferences cannot be a condition on the truth of its principles. Objective scientific principles shouldn’t be bent to the will of morality.

You might say, as I’ve read people say, that economics is not a science at all, but more like history, an attempt to reconstruct phenomenon after they’ve already occurred (this is more often claimed about macroeconomics than microeconomics). That is, a discipline with little if any predictive power. Whatever merits this claim has, it is certainly not the prevailing political opinion. This is evidenced by the fact that we turn to economists for expert advice. When we want to know, for example, what effects raising the Fed’s interest rate will have on demand for houses, economists are paid handsomely to give an answer. We certainly don’t knowingly turn to them for moral advice; if that were the case, moral philosophers would reap the windfall economists have enjoyed for years. Where do I sign up!

We might clarify things by thinking about one of the possible relationships between the two domains, the Good and True, as applied specifically to our subject, economics. One possibility is that the principles of economic efficiency are a non-moral matter, but they become objects of moral concern when we judge the appropriateness of various possible distributive outcomes. Given the importance of what is distributed by economic institutions, however, it becomes a moral question how such things should be distributed and hence, in the moral sense, what the correct distribution is. In this way, we can discover and support the correct principles of efficient distribution without recourse to any moral language; the latter shows up at a later stage.

This appears to be the philosopher, John Rawls’s, understanding of the relationship. He believed that morally neutral economic principles supported the possibility of distinct Pareto Optimal (roughly, maximally efficient) outcomes. A morally sustainable, i.e. just, distributive outcome would be chosen amongst those outcomesha. In this way, Rawls had his cake and ate it too. He demonstrated, he thought, that justice (the Good in our story) aligns with economic efficiency (the True in our story). On this picture morality is subsequent to and doesn’t seem to infuse economic theory in any objectionable way.

We might wonder though whether this is the same Platonic fantasy in a different guise. In particular, why should we believe that a just distribution so nicely coincides with one of the Pareto Optimal distributions? Rawls could only engineer this intersection by assuming that justice is compatible with, indeed requires, wide (possibly very, very wide) differences in wealth. Many have duly attacked him for this position, arguing (for example) that justice musn’t be held hostage by economic incentives that are allegedly born out of the differences in expected wealth. For our purposes, the problem is that Rawls went too far in the other direction: instead of grounding an economic principle on morality, he bent morality to the will of an economic principle.

In the end, the lesson is the following. If economics purports to be a scientific endeavor, then the application of its principles shouldn’t automatically be believed to be good for our country, even when true. Going the other way, if we are trying to assess the moral goodness of an economic policy (that is, its justice), we shouldn’t automatically conclude that there is some true economic theory which supports it. Either way, the important practical implication is that politicians who are responsible for making policy conform to justice shouldn’t rely solely on economic advice, even when the subject matter is economics and even if the advice is sound.

To believe otherwise is to believe that the True and the Good always intersect, and this is to believe in a notion that’s too good to be true.

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Tuesday, February 3, 2009

Obama and rendition

The LA Times kicked up a mini storm with the Sunday piece entitled, 'Obama preserves renditions…' According to the Times, Obama is set to continue Bush’s widely abhorred rendition program wherein foreign nationals are kidnapped and then taken to a torture-friendly country and subsequently tortured for information. As others have pointed out (here, for example), the Times piece fails to distinguish between extraordinary rendition and the type of rendition program the Obama executive order makes possible. This is no small difference, since the former is known to involve torture and other extralegal interrogation techniques while the latter, given the other executive orders Obama has penned, should not—at least for now. We need the qualification since Obama left open the possibility for using techniques that go beyond the Army Field Manual. This will depend upon the findings of the task force he called for to investigate the appropriateness of the manual’s methods. We eagerly await the results of this investigation.

The shortcomings of the Times piece needed to be pointed out, but we should be concerned that Obama's policies are getting a pass owing to the necessarily favorable comparisons to Bush's.

For example, we have this nugget quoted in the Times piece, “’Under limited circumstances, there is a legitimate place’ for renditions, said Tom Malinowski, the Washington advocacy director for Human Rights Watch.” Now, what is a director of Human Rights Watch doing trying to justify kidnapping? It boggles the mind that someone committed to human rights could say that it could be morally justified.

Can we think of a greater affront to liberty than government sanctioned kidnapping? The Times goes on to quote Malinowski as urging Obama to set up a system to ensure that rendered prisoners be shuffled off to a court of justice where they would receive a public hearing. To be sure, this proposal offers an outcome better than being kidnapped and tortured. But with regard to the right to liberty, it is no less of an offense.

Even Glenn Greenwald, who I admire for his characteristic moral clarity, instead of condemning the practice of rendition outright, waxes philosophical by offering a thought experiment designed to tax the minds of those who would condemn the practice.

I believe Bush did the nation at least one service by clarifying what we should be against. As Nietzsche said, “We all need our antipodes.” We shouldn’t now lose our moral compass just because someone we trust and admire is in charge of the country. Perhaps we should be even more vigilant.

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