Sunday, March 8, 2009

The Pretense of Knowledge by MT Nguyen, The Empire, CA

The title comes from the Austrian economist, F.A. Hayek’s, Nobel Prize winning address. I like the title and the sentiment it expresses. Hayek applied it specifically to economists of his era, and I would like to apply it, although in a different context, to economists as well, including to Hayek himself.

For those who are not familiar with Hayek (I wasn’t until about a month ago), the one interesting thing to know is that he is something of a hero to the right wing. His attack on socialism, The Road to Serfdom, is a classic; his work on economics forms one cornerstone in what is known as the Austrian School (roughly, anti-Keynesian economic theory). In trying to learn something about the large clash of ideas that is occurring now because of our economic crisis, one could do far worse than spend some time studying his writings.

Much can be gleaned from what Hayek concludes in his Nobel address:

The recognition of the insuperable limits to his knowledge ought indeed to teach the student of society a lesson of humility which should guard him against becoming an accomplice in men's fatal striving to control society - a striving which makes him not only a tyrant over his fellows, but which may well make him the destroyer of a civilization which no brain has designed but which has grown from the free efforts of millions of individuals.

This should be understood as a call for skepticism, a wariness of human arrogance in matters of knowledge. In Hayek’s case, he applied this skepticism to economic knowledge, asserting that we cannot have the kind of knowledge that many economists claim. This epistemic hole implies, Hayek claims, that governmental economic market manipulation is (more or less) always unjustified. Grounding this skepticism is his assertion that the market-place possesses its own kind of ‘wisdom’. Specifically, markets can sum up the totality of human economic intentions and communicate them to all economic players in the form of prices. This is the coordinating function at which it is uniquely master. According to Hayek, the only way acquire the ‘wisdom’ of the marketplace would be to know the intentions of each individual market player, and since that is possible only for God, if such there be, it would be overreaching (to say the least) to insinuate oneself, as the government does, when it fixes prices, attempts to manipulate wages, prevents capital flight, or performs any number of other interventionist actions.

Many have used Hayek to draw the conclusion that government should never interfere with the marketplace. This is highly misleading. First, Hayek himself was quite clear that exceptions existed, e.g. when the costs of a business venture cannot be summed up by price (pollution is a classic example because a polluting business does not solely bear the costs of its pollution, but gains all the profit); and, when the enjoyment of a good cannot be efficiently charged to its recipient (e.g. signposts and roads). In such cases markets fail to do their job, and government has a role to play. Second, and rather surprisingly, he believed a strong case could be made that government should provide a safety net against catastrophic loss, i.e. a kind of insurance against shortfalls in basic material necessities. I take it some of his followers will take him to task for his alleged inconsistency on this matter. It is unclear to me how far he is willing to go, but it makes his position interesting and far from the dyed-in-the-wool anti-interventionist his followers want and paint him out to be. On both counts, therefore, he was not, as he repeatedly says, a proponent of laissez-faire economics.

Aside from the exceptions just noted, generally he thought that there was a positive role for government: it should be like a gardener tending to his garden, cultivating the conditions necessary for (economic) growth. Nevertheless, the exceptions and cultivating activities are, for Hayek, necessarily protracted and limited.

Leaving those not insignificant nuances aside, we can ask the question whether it follows from this type of economic theory that governmental intervention is generally wrong. On the face of it, it is easy to say no. Governmental intervention is wrong only if we make the striking conclusion, one which I have argued before there is no reason to accept, that a true economic theory implies economic justice. That is, that allowing true economic theory to dictate policy necessarily benefits everyone. This is a Platonic fantasy to which we shouldn’t be beholden.

When the mechanisms of the marketplace lead to unjust economic distributions, there is good reason why government should interfere. The reason is simple: government should be in the business of achieving justice. It is important to digest the truth that economists for all their pretensions of knowledge, all their mind-numbing econometric models, really, I mean really, have no special competence and hence no authority to say anything about how economic goods should be distributed.

I just said that governments are in the business of justice and concluded that economists are not and so should shut up (or at least make clear that when they are dispensing ethical advice, they don’t pass it off as grounded in some mathematical model or, worse, some a priori truth born out of reflection on the nature of rationality). But here’s the rub. Many of the most influential 20th-century economists from von Mises to Murray Rothbard, to Hayek, to Milton Friedman have philosophical pretensions. Look at the titles of their influential works and there can be no doubt: “Socialism” by von Mises, in which he purports to establish the irrationality and immorality of all forms of socialism; “For a New Liberty” by Murray Rothbard in which he purports to establish libertarianism as a philosophical doctrine; “The Road to Serfdom” by Hayek, as I said earlier an attack on socialism; “Capitalism and Freedom” by Milton Friedman, in which he defends the idea that economic freedom is a necessary condition of political freedom.

This whole cast of ‘liberal’ economists suffer a pretense to knowledge, namely, that they can make true claims about social justice. Turning again to Hayek, when he asserts that government interference may make it a ‘destroyer of civilization,’ he does not mean just a destroyer of economies. He means that governmental interference unjustly restricts individual liberty, and thus casts an inextricable totalitarian shadow over the whole of political life. In the end, Hayek proposed fairly moderate policies. This cannot be said of his heirs. This is why there now exists a more severe strand of conservatism (or libertarianism, nee classical liberalism) a la Grover Norquist which aims, in Norquist’s famous quip, to “drag [government] into the bathroom and drown it in the bathtub”. On this radical view, the business of economics cannot be separated from that of justice; for government to intervene in economic transactions just is for it to destroy liberty and send us all on the short road to serfdom.

Whatever is to be said on either side of this debate, and much ink has been spilled, my point is to note the movement to an entirely different habitat than the one in which the academic economist lives. What we have here is an ethical/political theory, one which posits a conception of happiness and the necessary steps to achieve it. We are in the domain of philosophy in the grand Platonic/Nietzschean sense (as opposed to the narrow academic sense). To his credit, in the original preface to ‘The Road to Serfdom’ Hayek explicitly acknowledges that its content stands outside the ken of his specialty, academic economics. That however didn’t stop him from writing the rest of the book, nor did he repeat that qualification in the subsequent editions—after it had enjoyed its successes. These philosophical ambitions, perhaps, explain the longevity of their ideas, and why they persist even though the economic basis of the ideas have fallen out of favor.

In a recent interview, Paul Krugman quipped that no special license is required to identify oneself as an economist. This truth applies to an even greater extent to identifying oneself as a philosopher. Our 'liberal' economists, not content with the small deliverances of their own discipline, seem to want to ‘play the master’ (to use Nietzsche’s phrase) and fancy themselves philosophers. This is ironic since for all their railing against government planning out and directing individual lives, these people have taken on the ultimate synoptic perspective: that of the philosopher who knows the good for man and aims in their activities to make that vision real. Plato would be proud.

Hayek rightly chided economists for their ‘scientism’, that is, their pretending that economics can deliver knowledge on a par with physics. I think he should have chided them, and himself, additionally for pretending to have the wisdom of philosophers. Assuming such a wisdom exists, there is no special reason to think that economists have it, and thus no special reason to listen to them when they make philosophical claims. Of course, we need not deny that as individuals these economists can have philosophical insight; but, since there can be no sound inference from true economic theory to a sound ethical theory, any philosophical claims must be diligently distinguished and judged on their own merits. I intend on tackling some of their more interesting philosophical claims in my next essay.

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Thursday, February 19, 2009

Schadenfreude


(Cartoon via www.nicholsoncartoons.com.au)


Evidently, the Swiss banking giant UBS has acknowledged their role in a conspiracy to defraud the US by knowingly sheltering tax dollars.  As part of their agreement with the US DOJ, UBS will, for the first time ever, hand over names of relevant clients.  The number of clients involved is listed by the Financial Times at 250.  I find it hard to believe that the number is not higher, e.g. The New York Times writes that the number of accounts being investigated is 19,000.

At any rate, I know I always feel better when rich tax-evaders can glimpse their comeuppance just around the corner.

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Monday, March 31, 2008

Bait and switch

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, former CEO of Goldman Sachs, announced a plan for new rules governing federal regulation of financial markets. Given the crisis we’re in that would mean stricter control over the free for all of the past 8 years, right? Apparently not, as Paulson asserts, “I do not believe it is fair or accurate to blame our regulatory structure for the current turmoil.”

So, what are these new regulations really about? As the Times reports,

Mr. Paulson has worried that any effort to substantially tighten regulation could hamper the ability of American markets to compete with foreign rivals — and, in fact, the proposal stemmed from a series of policy discussions that began well before the current tumult that has rocked the nation’s economic underpinnings.
I see. Use a crisis to roll out a plan, devised previously for the sake of corporate profit, to do exactly the opposite of what is required to mitigate said crisis. Sound familiar?

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Tuesday, March 25, 2008

The difficulty of aid

Acbar (the coordinating body for 94 NGO’s), a Kabul-based organization, will report today that aid to Afghanistan is “wasteful and ineffective.” (For their press release, go here.)

Why? In large measure, donor countries have been negligent in their aid. According to the report, the largest donor, the U.S., has managed to distribute only half of its pledged aid ($5B of $10.4B); although, other countries, like Canada, Japan and Italy, have been more efficient. In explaining the wastefulness of aid, the report points out some usual culprits like consultant salaries and corporate profits (accounting for an estimated 40% of total aid!?). Equally important, the report acknowledges that underspending is connected to the problematic conditions in Afghanistan: government corruption, lack of know-how in using donated resources and security issues. This accounts for why too much aid ends up funding political and military budgets rather than aimed at poverty-reducing measures. In turn, the recognition of these conditions demotivates donors.

These reflect many of the considerations Paul Collier discusses in his book, the Bottom Billion. Although Collier does not explicitly refer to Afghanistan as a bottom billion country, it meets the criteria he lays out: plagued by conflict, poor governance, being landlocked and the abundance of natural resources.

As Acbar and Collier both point out, we need not despair. The solution cannot be to withhold aid until, miraculously, conditions improve, because conditions won’t improve without aid (up to 90% of Afghanistan’s public spending is funded by aid). The solution is to use the aid effectively. This requires, among other things, studying and understanding the current conditions so as to know to whom, when and how much to give.

This may be too obvious to point out, but evidently knowledge does not form the present basis for aid distribution. We might wonder why. Is it that such knowledge is difficult (too difficult?) to acquire? Or does corruption play a role in ensuring that such knowledge does not see the light of day? Or?

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Monday, March 17, 2008

Some remarks on Paul Collier's The Bottom Billion by MT Nguyen, NYC


The numbers for poverty-related deaths (deaths from easily curable disease and famine) are staggering. I won’t cite specific numbers, since such numbers rely on complex methodologies which appear to change from researcher to researcher. But, it is not, I don’t think, contentious to put the ballpark number in the millions. So, we have in our world millions of preventable deaths. The idea that these are preventable deaths poses a whole host of questions and problems. Preventable at what cost? Who should bear the responsibility? For those willing to bear the responsibility, what precisely should be done? One might think that shifting wealth from the developed world to the undeveloped world would be sufficient if only the amount of wealth is sufficient. Is this true?

It is a documented fact that Americans are givers. A recent study on charitable donations by the Giving USA foundation reported that Americans gave around 295 Billion dollars in 2007. We can’t know the motivation behind the donations, and this might make a difference to our overall assessment of our nation as charitable and generous. But we do give. Why doesn’t it seem then that much has changed? Is it not enough? The amount of American charitable giving is incredible considering that some estimate it would require only 300 billion/year to arrest severe poverty in the world (understood as living under $1US/day). Even less is required (very roughly, $150 billion/year) if, as it is in the Millennium Development Goals, the target is poverty reduction by half by 2015. By that measure, we Americans alone give enough. So, what’s the problem?

The problem is that money alone is not sufficient. There are structural impediments to the correct use of aid. The main lesson I take from Paul Collier’s fine book is that practical judgment, informed by acute sensitivity to the particulars of the situation, makes all the difference to the fine line between successful and failed aid. If eradicating poverty is the goal, the primary question is not whether or not we should give, rather the problem is when to give, where to give, what to give, and how much to give. At least this is Collier’s contention specifically with regard to aid to the worst off.

Collier refers to the worst off with his coinage ‘the bottom billion’. The phrase is not just a rhetorical nicety; it has a real referent and economic significance. The bottom billion persons live in countries (58 of them by his count, including many African countries but also Laos, Haiti, Bolivia, Cambodia, Burma and n. Korea) with characteristic features, features which are the main project of the book to describe. The economic significance is that these countries, unlike the countries housing the other 5 billion inhabitants of the world, are in economic decline. Collier is a firm believer in the power of economic growth to improve the quality of life. One point the book tries to impress is that economic decline (negative absolute growth) implies misery, violence and finally death.

His explicit thesis is that bottom billion countries are caught into ‘traps’ which undermine aid and other efforts at economic reform. They are, in order of explication, the conflict trap, the natural resource trap, being landlocked and poor governance. These are isolatable conditions but they each bear significant relationships to one another. I won’t try to describe, let alone assess, Collier’s treatment of these traps. My aim is merely to mention a couple of the interesting and striking claims he makes. It is important to keep in mind that the conclusions he draws are meant to apply primarily to bottom billion countries.

The conflict trap refers to the ongoing civil wars and coups that afflict these countries. It would appear obvious that conflict would undermine economic growth but along with his colleagues, Collier has tried to uncover the deeper reasons for this connection. We might have speculated that poverty leads to conflict because the motivation to war is grounded in the desire to rectify domestic injustices (political or economic). According to Collier, this is simply not the case. There is no correlation between civil conflict and political repression, economic inequality or ethnic antagonisms. Rather, the startling thesis is that conflict arises in impoverished countries in part because rebellion is cheap: the impoverished youth are easily recruited. Additionally, the likelihood of civil war is increased significantly if the country happens to be rich in natural resources, which resources can be used to finance the conflict. More perniciously, corporate financing becomes available in exchange for promises of future deals should rebels succeed.

That access to natural resources should be undermining is counterintuitive yet well established. Apparently, economists have known about this phenomenon for some time. They call it Dutch Disease. Basically, the wealth gained from natural resources crowds out a country’s other export industries, which industries are instrumental to future growth. This is most significant for bottom billion countries since for them the exportation of cheap labor is one of the primary avenues for economic growth. The problem goes deeper than that, and one of the unexpected pleasures of reading Collier’s book is his discussion of natural resource wealth (what is called ‘rents’) and its effects on political competition. His discussion is ingenious.

Wealth accumulated from natural resources affects the use of power in a democracy. By reducing incentives to scrutinize government action (less taxes are required), instead of using infrastructure investments to gain votes, those in power or those who vie for power focus primarily on bribing community leaders. Those who fail to do this lose elections. Bribery of course requires cash, illicit cash. Typically, various checks (a strong judiciary, a free press, etc.) would make obtaining such cash costly. In their absence, an absence facilitated by monies gathered from rents, the politics of patronage becomes almost irresistible. This is bad for growth. What’s better? Strictly in economic terms, autocracies do better than democracies under such conditions. However, autocracies, in turn, undermine growth as well. To sustain power, especially when the autocrat’s support base is small relative to the overall population, resort to excessive patronage once again leads to waste. This is why having natural resource wealth is a trap; the most accessible political options are both suboptimal.

The trap explains why indiscriminate wealth transfers cannot be a general solution. Either a resource rich nation rebuffs the conditions usually tied with such transfers, or else it ‘accepts’ them only to use the wealth solely to further the hold on power. One solution Collier offers is that, instead of transferring money, aid should take the form of technical assistance. Reform requires knowledge, and this is precisely what bottom billion countries lack (because the educated have emigrated to developed countries). But even this form of aid is not beneficial unless it is offered at the right time. The country must be already prepared to use the skills imported. What he says here can be said, I think, about all forms of aid:

The problem is not the overall insufficiency of technical assistance but rather that it is organized so as to be unresponsive to [sic] country circumstances. In the parlance of the agencies technical assistance is supply-driven rather than demand-driven. The assistance is poured into the same places year after year without much regard to political opportunities…Technical assistance needs to be reorganized to look more like emergency relief and less like a pipeline of projects.

This may seem obvious, but evidently our aid institutions are not set up to be flexible in the required way. The chief lesson of Collier’s book is that in order to be true benefactors, we need to have a detailed empirical understanding of the conditions under which suffering peoples exist.

There are many other fascinating and helpful discussions in Collier’s book. I have taken up only one small thread, and strongly encourage others to explore this important contribution to see for themselves.

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Monday, March 3, 2008

Environmental Disaster: Is the Right being reasonable? by Matias Bulnes, NYC

The fear of an environmental disaster is here to stay. What was once perceived as the murmur of a handful of oversensitive hippies has become a resonating alarm. Despite skeptics global warming will likely keep on escalating positions on the list of high-priority political issues. For every new piece of evidence scientists collect that we are on the verge of a climate change draws more attention to the unforeseeable risks that can result from it. Moreover this is a perfectly rational response for we have been shaped by the evolutionary process to live in the Earth as it is now and we do not know if we’ll be able to survive in a different planet Earth. So if evolutionary biologists are right and the species is the central evolutionary unit, remaining passive on the face of this environmental danger may well run counter to our nature and hence be irrational.

In fact, the situation is doubly dangerous. For not only is it dangerous to suddenly find ourselves in a world unsuited for us, there is also the danger that we will not be able to react before we find ourselves thrown headfirst on an irreversible process leading to that unbeknown scenario. Important scientists have warned us about this so-called tipping point after which the climate change will be irreversible; yet skeptics, oftentimes less scholarly, remain politically strong. This raises an important question: why do non-experts (e.g. politicians) have so much say on this issue? We’ve seen the Bush administration playing down the ecological agenda for years pace the scientific community and this calls for reflection. But also there is an important related question: why has the issue been parted along the political spectrum? Why do we see mostly the Right playing down the problem? Don’t they care for the human species?

They do care. I disagree with those activists that want to demonize right-wingers as selfish, unconscious individuals. If Evolutionary Biology is correct, we cannot but care. We are set up to care or to at least behave in ways that foster our species. Had we not, we would have already extinguished ourselves. On the contrary, I think the answer lies on some foundational political views associated with the Right. I want to argue that it’s the Right’s libertarian ideals that prevent them from seeing the ecological danger looming. In particular, it’s their blindfolded belief in raw free-market Economics that blurs their view. As a corollary, I think this is yet another powerful sign that raw free-market Economics is flawed.

What I call raw free-market Economics is the modern version of Adam Smith’s doctrine of the invisible hand. The central idea is that the market acts as an invisible regulator of the burdens and incentives in society and that it does as good a job as it can be done. As a consequence, no human intervention in the market is necessary, for the invisible hand is a far superior decision-maker than our best policy experts. In modern Microeconomics this doctrine has found further support on the well-established thesis that in an idealized market satisfying more or less plausible hypotheses about human psychology, absence of intervention will maximize efficiency. To give a day-to-day example, the idea is that how many tomatoes a society should produce will be determined by how many people want tomatoes and how many tomatoes they want. Should we need less tomatoes than we currently produce, some tomato companies won't be able to sell enough, will begin to lose money and will eventually leave the market reducing the number of tomatoes produced. Again, no governmental intervention is called for in order to regulate the production of tomatoes.

Of course, the thesis ranges much further than the production of commodities such as tomatoes and different politicians and intellectuals subscribe to it to various degrees. But, to whatever extent, no doubt this is an ideal widespread especially among right-wingers. At its extreme, the doctrine claims competence in all areas of society. Health and Education (to mention two controversial examples) are said to be better regulated by the market ultimately leading to more prosperity. And so does it claim competence in deciding how and when to deal with environmental problems. As the environment staggers, so the story goes, either consumers will become conscious of the danger and punish the companies responsible or resources will become scarcer and this will force companies to produce in sustainable manners on pain of jeopardizing their long-term chances. One way or another, no governmental intervention is necessary: the market will do the job for us.

I want to propose this blindfolded reliance on the market as an important reason why the Right has been so oblivious to the environmental alarm. Their reasoning is that if the market hasn’t reacted appropriately to environmental problems then environmentalists and activists must be exaggerating the problems. I believe this to be a plausible explanation for why, on the face of scientific evidence pointing to an environmental catastrophe that will harm them and their heirs, most right-wingers react skeptically. To posit egotistical intentions in them is to incur in extravagant conspiracy theories that do not foster mutual understanding and agreement.

But even if their failure is more theoretical than moral, all the same they may still be leading us to an irreversible environmental disaster. On the one hand, in dismissing scientific opinion on the environmental problem, they are favoring a hypothesis highly controversial even within the economic science. In the light of the magnitude of the risks involved this doesn’t seem a reasonable bet. It would seem much more reasonable to set manmade regulations on the market to prevent a potential environmental catastrophe even if it were true that the market would have prevented the catastrophe by itself. On the other hand, there are good reasons to doubt that the market will react to the environmental downfall on time and hence prevent a potential environmental catastrophe by itself. Developments in Game Theory have shown scenarios where the market either does not regulate the burdens and incentives in ways furthering prosperity or it takes too long in so doing. I end by arguing that the current environmental scenario is one of them.

Free-riding is an economic phenomenon where the collective good opposes the individual good. Free-riding is to be expected when, even though there is some collective bad resulting from the workings of a certain market, agents in the market have incentives to keep on acting in ways that can perpetuate the bad for a long time. Situations like this are usually illustrated with a variant of the Prisoner’s Dilemma, but the issue can be made clear enough by considering the current environmental scenario that concern us. There are many industries producing emissions of greenhouse gases which are usually pointed to as mainly responsible for global warming. The industries’ owners are aware of these accusations and, as any human being, have grounds to be worried about the consequences of continuing emissions of greenhouse gases. They know that these emissions may be jeopardizing the collective well-being in the long-term, but they have short-term incentives to “ride free” on this collective evil. For, should they change their productive process in order to stop their emissions, their costs would likely rise and the prices of their products would rise with them making them less marketable. At the end of the day, they could get crushed by other less-conscious industries that still produce at the lower costs. They have incentives to hold on to their current productive process for as long as possible.

The problem is, of course, that given their ignorance of climate phenomena, what industry owners deem “possible” may end up killing us all. Whether or not this is a flaw in raw free-market economics, at the very least it sounds irrational for a society to leave these decisions to individuals who are publicly known to have incentive to underestimate the danger (not to mention their lack of knowledge on the subject matter).

The Bush administration has emphasized how little our scientific understanding of climate phenomena still is. But rather than giving us reasons to relax, this should serve as a remainder that we are playing with fire, that we are dealing with a danger whose magnitude we can’t fully anticipate. It is a responsibility of the federal government and congress to listen to the scientific community and create whatever regulations are necessary to turn things around before we arrive at the tipping point after which any efforts will be useless. Waiting for the market to save us from an environmental disaster is not only theoretically myopic but morally wrong.

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